Dota 2 Betting Predictions for StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5

StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Dota Pro Circuit Minor, having a prize pool of $300,000 and awarding a total of 300 qualification points for The International 2018. The event is organized by StarLadder in association with ImbaTV, has eight participating teams and is scheduled to take place in Kiev (Ukraine, Eastern Europe) between April 12th and April 15th.

Teams, Tournament Format and Prize Distribution
StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 features eight teams from a total of six regions:

Europe: Team Kinguin.
CIS: FlyToMoon, Natus Vincere, Vega Squadron.
South America: SG e-sports.
North America: OpTic Gaming.
China: VGJ.Thunder.
Southeast Asia: Fnatic.
For the Group Stage, the teams will be split into two groups of four.
Group A

OpTic Gaming
VGJ.Thunder
FlyToMoon
Team Kinguin
Group B

Fnatic
Vega Squadron
Natus Vincere
SG e-sports
Both groups will be played in a double-elimination bracket format. The second and first placed teams from each group advance to the Playoffs. Here, the rank 1 from Group A plays against rank 2 from Group B and vice versa. Until the Grand Final (Bo5), every match is a Bo3 series.

Because it belongs to the Dota Pro Circuit, StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 offers 300 qualification points in addition to its prize pool. The money and the points will be distributed among the 8 teams in the following way:

1st place: $135,000; 150 points
2nd place: $60,000; 90 points
3rd – 4th place: $30,000; 30 points
5th – 6th place: $15,000; 0 points
7th – 8th place: $7,500; 0 points
Betting Predictions
VGJ.Thunder vs. FlyToMoon
VGJ.Thunder
VGJ.Thunder is sitting at number 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1665 points. This is a very strong Chinese competitor and given that most of its usual opponents are missing from this event, it is likely that it will claim the title or at least qualify for the Grand Final. Overall, VGJ.Thunder has obtained two 2nd place finishes this season at Dota Pro Circuit LAN events. One of these tournaments was The Bucharest Major.

FlyToMoon
This team has been around for only two months and does not have a single notable result apart from some tournament qualifications. Even at this level of competition, which is considerably lower compared to that of Major tournaments, FlyToMoon has little to no chance of getting anything other than a 7th-8th place finish.

Prediction
This is a complete mismatch and will definitely end with a quick 2 – 0 victory in favor of VGJ.Thunder. Given that it’s a Bo3, there’s almost nothing that FlyToMoon can do to stop the Chinese juggernaut.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -310 / +200 in favor of VGJ.Thunder, giving you spectacular returns for such a low-risk bet.

OpTic Gaming vs. Kinguin
OpTic Gaming
OpTic Gaming is the strongest team in North America, with the exception of Evil Geniuses. With more than 6 months of local and international experience, a great roster full of highly skilled individuals and a formidable captain (Peter “ppd” Dager, TI 5 champion with EG), OpTic Gaming is one of the main contenders at this event and should easily get a top 3 finish. I personally think they’re very likely to reach the Grand Final, but it remains to be seen.

Team Kinguin
Team Kinguin is a mediocre European squad with a few participations at Dota Pro Circuit events but no achievements so far. Given that StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Minor event which for the most part, didn’t attract the interest of top teams, Team Kinguin might achieve a 5th-6th place result. But I don’t think they can climb higher than that.

Prediction
This might be a disputed match, but OpTic Gaming will almost certainly still be victorious in the end. Either a 2 – 0 or a 2 – 1 result in their favor is an extremely likely outcome for this encounter.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -325 / +210 in favor of OpTic Gaming.

Vega Squadron vs. SG e-sports
Vega Squadron
Vega Squadron is a fairly strong team in the CIS region and in recent weeks has managed to beat tough opponents such as Team Empire, Natus Vincere and Team Spirit in the CIS qualifiers for various tournaments. The players on its roster aren’t very well known, but they’re all seasoned professionals and play reasonably well as a unit.

Vega Squadron has little chance of winning against top contenders like OpTic Gaming, Fnatic, and VGJ.Thunder, but has at least a 50% chance to emerge victorious against any other team. The most likely result for them at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a 5th-6th place finish.

SG e-sports
No doubt, SG e-sports is one of the top South American teams. However, South America is by far the weakest region in Dota 2 of the 6 that are officially recognized, and the only one that doesn’t have a representative among the top 10 teams inside the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table. Like most of the other participants at this tournament, SG e-sports hasn’t had any notable results this season. And since the skill difference between South America and the other regions is so big, it’s likely that they will get either a 5th-6th or 7th-8th place finish at this event.

Prediction
Vega Squadron is slightly favored to win this match, but only by a little. So you should be cautious here and not take a huge risk.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -175 / +120 in favor of Vega Squadron.

Fnatic vs. Natus Vincere
Fnatic
Fnatic desperately needs a title or at least a 2nd place finish at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to get back into top 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table and obtain a direct invite for The International 2018. Right now, it’s sitting at number 11 with 884 points, so this type of competition is a perfect opportunity for a great result because it lacks top opposition for the most part. In terms of strength, Fnatic is the second-best team at this event and will likely reach the Grand Final if it can defeat either OpTic Gaming or VGJ.Thunder in the Semifinals (depending on who it will face at that point).

One thing to take note of is that Fnatic will be playing with their coach Adam at this tournament and not with “pieliedie”. This decision might have a significant impact on their game.

Natus Vincere
Following the departure of RodjER and SoNNeikO, Natus Vincere went on a downward spiral and is now an underdog in most of the tournaments participates in. At the moment, this famous CIS team is sitting at number 10 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1199 points. Just like Fnatic, Natus Vincere needs an excellent result at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to have a chance of getting a top 8 finish for the season and get a direct invite to The International 2018. Based on its recent performance, Na’Vi has little chance of getting more than a 3rd-4th place finishes at this event.

Prediction
Fnatic will be seeking revenge for its previous defeat against Na’Vi and will almost certainly going to get it. However, keep in mind that Fnatic will be playing with a substitute and this may affect their performance in a negative way.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -250 / +170 in favor of Fnatic.

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